Tentative ceasefire demonstrates China’s might in Myanmar, as well as its limitations.

China is now the main foreign force influencing potential outcomes in Myanmar’s rapidly escalating political crisis. Beijing is attempting to encourage a number of armed organizations that have mounted the largest challenge to the generals since the generals took control in the coup in February 2021.

The Arakan Army (AA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Mandarin-speaking Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) were the three powerful ethnic armies that Beijing forced to agree to a ceasefire last week. This was after fighters collaborating with anti-coup coalitions throughout Myanmar drove Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s military out of large areas of the country overran hundreds of military outposts and took control of border crossings with China as part of Operation 1027.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning confirmed that a temporary ceasefire had been achieved in a statement on December 14. She said that China supports the peace process of northern Myanmar and has provided support and facilitation for dialogue and contact between relevant parties in Myanmar.

China has been by far the most significant foreign actor in the turmoil in Myanmar due to its prominent role in the truce and its armed support for both ethnic armies and the SAC. Myanmar is a strategically important place where major powers have long fought for influence and its generals are strengthening their ties with Russia.

The cease-fire came after the junta’s foreign minister visited Beijing and asked for China’s support. As well as a flurry of Chinese government meetings with the MNDAA and its allies.